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Stampede to OTT is out of control


Published: 27 January, 2012


We described the European flight to OTT technology as a stampede in our Faultline issue this week and this is a good description. When animals stampede they are running AWAY from something, in a panic, more than running towards something. This is how Mammoths were driven off cliff-tops to their doom by early man, and there may be a few Mammoth skeletons down the track.

Although our forecast (see did point to 83 million OTT connections by 2015, and that's if you ignore existing free to air catch up services, which are already way beyond that, we don't think this is a large number out of 206 million TV homes, which could one day have four or five OTT connections each.

While Free to air catch up will continue to lead, the next biggest market will be TV Everywhere to non-specialist devices such as PCs and Tablets, and then there will be specialist hybrid free to air devices such as Smart TV sets, and finally a relatively small number of specialist hybrid pay TV devices emerging by 2015. The biggest concern are the number of CE devices such as Smart TVs that will not get connected to any major OTT service, which initially will be the majority of such devices, since they are being sold without a mention of their capabilities.

A stampede is out of control, goes in every direction, and involves panic - which is where Europe is at right now in OTT.

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