Free Newsletter

QUICK POLL
  • Which training workshop is of most value to your organisation?
  • Preparing your business for the Internet of Things
  • The Internet of Things and Cloud computing
  • Radio technologies for connecting the Internet of Things
  • Smart Cities and intelligent infrastructure
  • WebRTC and the end of the telco
EVENTS
Meet the leaders of the mobile app economy ? Open Mobile Summit, London, June 8-9
Navigation Strategies Europe 2011
ITU Telecom World, 24-27 October 2011 at Palexpo, Geneva, Switzerland
Ubiquitous Location and Positioning Technology, 6th-7th December 2011, Chicago
Advertize your telecoms job

AT&T rumors over Dish are poor thinking on a slow day

Here’s a headline that you won’t see very often, “AT&T will NOT be buying Dish Networks,” because it makes no sense – it’s a bit like saying there’s n

By PETER WHITE

Published: 17 February, 2011

READ MORE:

Here’s a headline that you won’t see very often, “AT&T will NOT be buying Dish Networks,” because it makes no sense – it’s a bit like saying there’s no news this week. But repeated investment rumors in the US just need squashing, and while you can never absolutely rule out mergers, because there are some idiots out there, and they’re dangerous, it would be pretty much madness for AT&T to go and buy Dish Networks.

The reasoning is simple. It looked hard at what kind of deal it might do with either DirecTV or Dish Networks after it acquired Bellsouth and realized that the better of the two TV options was DirecTV and has not sold another Dish Network subscriber since. If Dish is in any kind of a state (in investment terms due to lack of subscriber adds) then it was caused by AT&T.

I know that some disingenuous person out there will suggest that this was a deliberate ploy by AT&T to drive the price of DISH down, so that it could buy it more cheaply, when it fact, had it wanted such a deal, it could have said, “This is the price,” sell yourself to us or we’ll give the distribution deal to DirecTV, and it wouldn’t have had to contribute to the damage of the property it was acquiring.

Also if you look at the net TV additions for AT&T it’s now doing more than fine with U-Verse and added 246,000 U-Verse IPTV customers taking it to 3 million in service, compared with Verizon’s 3.5 million. We reckoned at the time that this meant it retains about 1.9 million DTH subscribers across both DirecTV, it’s current partner, and Dish, its old partner. Why would it chase a technology which is now a little more than 33% of its total TV customers? Especially after spending $billions on upgrading its network with Project Lightspeed to be IPTV ready. That network now reaches 27 million living units and it is notching up 22% penetration in markets where it has been for 30 months. So even if U-Verse doesn’t pass another home, it’s on track to take penetration to at least 6 million in 30 months or so. Why would you buy 14 million subscribers in another technology that you can’t guarantee would swap over?

And why is AT&T supposed to be interested in Dish? Because it owns one slicve of UHF spectrum that AT&T could have easily bid on, and has claims to two slices of MSS spectrum, which AT&T could easily acquire for less than it would have to pay for DISH.

Credit Suisse is behind the latest rumor after Dish moved to spend $1 billion on buying bankrupt satellite operator DBSD. If AT&T had wanted the spectrum, it would have bought the spectrum, but instead, Credit Suisse reckons that it might pay $20 billion for Dish and DBSD. Not to mention that Dish CEO Charlie Ergen would no longer have a train set to play with, and we don’t see him eager to sell.

If you then add the fact that Ergen’s “other” train set, the EchoStar satellite services and set top business that was spun out of Dish, has just agreed to acquire/merge with Hughes Communications in a transaction valued at $2 billion, aimed at offering Dish perhaps a return path through satellite broadband, then the price of any deal that AT&T imagined just went up. Of course AT&T doesn’t have to opt to take EchoStar, and this could be construed as Charlie Ergen enlarging his portfolio for when he is bought out of Dish.

Pages: 1 | 2

COMMENTS

Add Comment
No comments yet. Be the first to add a comment!
MARKET PLACE

    European Carrier Mobile Broadband Network Performance

    Analysing and comparing the data speed, latency, network quality and smartphone penetration for 94 mobile carriers in 28 European countries....

    Next Generation Haptics: Market Analysis and Forecasts

    An in-depth study of the growing popularity of haptics-enabled tactile feedback on mobile devices to augment UI interactions and enrich...
WHITE PAPERS

    Satellite Phones: Will Dual Mode Help the Phoenix Rise from the Ashes?

    Satellite phones have followed an arduous path since their much-hyped launch more than a decade ago. The hype was followed by an e...

    Mobile Widget Platform Market Analysis: Understanding the Business Case and ROI

    This white paper presents an analysis of the mobile widget platform market, as well as metrics supporting a mobile carrier?s busin...

POST COMMENT

You must be a registered user to post a comment. or
Username *
Email *
Comment *